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Chinas steel production and marketing boom in the future steel prices or tend to shocks
Author: Source: Views: Date:2019-06-11 10:37

According to the latest production and sales statistics of authoritative departments, crude steel production in China has been rising in recent years, and steel sales have also increased significantly over the past year.

According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China's crude steel output increased by 12.7% in April to 8.53 million tons, a record high. In April, steel production increased by 11.5% to 10.25 million tons.

Chen Kexin, chief analyst of Langer Steel Economic Research Center, said that the national steel inventory index was 114.1 points last weekend, down 2.5% from the same period last year, including 8.4% for construction steel. Crude steel production showed double-digit growth, but stock did not increase, indicating that China's steel demand is strong.

According to the monitoring data released by relevant agencies on the 23rd, the weekly output of threaded steel increased by 316,000 tons to 38152,000 tons, an increase of 724,200 tons compared with the same period last year; the social stock of threaded steel decreased by 278,600 tons to 569,830,000 tons, and the stock of steel mills decreased by 104,000 tons to 20444,000 tons.

"On the 23rd, the third round of coke market rally basically fell, most coke enterprises are optimistic about the future market." Recently, the environmental protection inspection in Shanxi has become stricter and intermittent production restriction has increased. From the downstream demand, the demand for coke in steel mills is still large in the near future. Therefore, coke market is still expected to rise.

For iron ore, Goldman Sachs Group analysts say China's unexpected increase in iron ore use is exacerbating supply shortages. Goldman Sachs raised its average iron ore price target for 2019 from $81 a tonne to $91 a tonne. Iron and steel industry experts have previously told reporters that the rise in iron ore has seriously affected the profits of steel mills, while demand is still acceptable, it has also formed a support for steel prices.

According to the analysis of Guotai Jun'an and other securities companies'research team, the growth rate of capital construction investment is expected to exceed 10% in the second and third quarters, which in a certain extent boosts the market's expectations for the demand for threaded steel. Qiu Yuecheng, director of black research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, predicts that the price of threads will remain high and volatile in the short term.

However, some steel analysts told reporters that the steel market will soon usher in the traditional off-season of consumption, and the next market will tend to shocks. Chen Kexin believes that the domestic steel market will enter a new period of turbulence, generally there will be no unilateral market, for steel prices should not be blindly optimistic.


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